September 2024 marks nine years since my team at Mentoro collaborated with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) to launch the TCS iON PrepTest, an online competitive exam preparation platform, across eastern Uttar Pradesh, India. At that time, EdTech was emerging, and we believed we were introducing something truly transformative. We visited over 200 schools, interacted with over 1,000 students, and campaigned across numerous coaching institutes. Yet, we only managed to secure 8-10 subscribers during the campaign.
Why do some startups fail? This question became central to our experience. In our case, the answer was clear: Timing.
In 2015, India’s internet landscape was vastly different. Broadband penetration was low, and the cost of wireless data was prohibitively high for most users. The infrastructure wasn’t ready to support the widespread adoption of online learning. The lesson became apparent in hindsight: even great ideas can fail if the timing isn’t right.
Bill Gross, the founder of Idealab, explores this same insight in his TED Talk, The Single Biggest Reason Why Startups Succeed. Bill Gross’ startup research found that timing is the single most crucial factor in determining whether a startup will succeed or fail, outweighing even the strength of the team or the idea itself.
Reflecting on the TCS iON PrepTest and analyzing successful startups through Gross’s lens, we see just how crucial the importance of timing in startups can be in turning a great idea into a successful business.
Timing: The Key to Startup Success
In his TED Talk, Bill Gross shared insights from his analysis of over 200 companies, including those funded by his incubator Idealab and external companies. Over the past two decades, Idealab funded many startups, such as Citysearch, GoTo, NetZero, and Tickets.com, all of which became billion-dollar companies. However, they also backed several startups that failed, including Z.com, Insider Pages, and Desktop Factory.
To understand why some startups thrived while others didn’t, Gross examined five factors that determine startup success:
- Timing
- Team/Execution
- Idea “Truth” Outlier
- Business Model
- Funding
Surprisingly, his analysis revealed that timing accounted for 42% of the difference between success and failure, making it the most critical factor. The strength of the team and execution came second, contributing 32%. The idea itself, which Gross initially believed was the most crucial element, ranked third at 28%. The business model and funding were less influential, accounting for 24% and 14%, respectively.
Gross’s findings suggest that even if you have a brilliant idea and a talented team, success is unlikely if the market isn’t ready. Companies like Airbnb, Uber, and YouTube thrived because they launched at the right moment when the market conditions were ripe for their services.
The Airbnb and Uber Examples: When Timing is Everything
Consider Airbnb. When it launched in 2008, the global financial crisis was at its peak. People were seeking new ways to earn extra income, and Airbnb provided a solution: renting out unused rooms or homes to travelers. This timing was pivotal to its success, as economic uncertainty made homeowners more willing to explore this unfamiliar and risky idea. Had Airbnb launched during a time of economic stability, the concept would likely have faced more resistance.
Similarly, Uber capitalized on perfect timing. Launched during the smartphone boom, when people were looking for more flexible, convenient transportation options, Uber also benefited from the gig economy’s rise. Drivers eager for extra income flocked to the platform, and passengers quickly embraced the convenience of booking rides through an app. Uber’s success was driven not only by its innovative idea and execution but also by launching at just the right time.
Now, compare this with Z.com, one of Idealab’s earlier ventures. Z.com was an online entertainment company launched in the late 1990s. The company failed despite a solid business model, significant funding, and even Hollywood talent. Why? Because broadband internet speeds were still too slow, streaming video content was a frustrating experience for most users. Z.com eventually closed its doors in 2003. A few years later, when internet speeds improved, and video streaming became easier, YouTube launched in the same space and flourished, again showing how critical timing is to a startup’s success.
My Experience with TCS iON PrepTest: A Lesson in Timing
Looking back at the TCS iON PrepTest in 2015, I can now see that while we were introducing a promising product, the market conditions in India weren’t right for it. Back then, broadband penetration in smaller cities and rural areas like eastern Uttar Pradesh was minimal, and data costs were prohibitively high. Tech-enabled learning from home was still a novel concept for many students and parents, who remained more comfortable with traditional, classroom-based education.
Our collaboration with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) aimed to revolutionize exam preparation. But despite our extensive efforts and resources, the infrastructure wasn’t there to support widespread adoption. The experience was a harsh lesson in the importance of timing.
A few years later, India’s internet landscape transformed, thanks to the Reliance Jio revolution, which made affordable high-speed internet accessible across the country. If we had launched the PrepTest in 2017 instead of 2015, the outcome could have been drastically different. By then, the infrastructure was ready, and online learning platforms flourished.
This experience mirrors Bill Gross’s findings: success becomes an uphill battle even with the backing of a giant like TCS if the timing is off.
Lessons Learned from These Examples
Bill Gross’s analysis and my experience with TCS iON PrepTest point to a clear conclusion: timing is everything. You can have an innovative idea, a talented team, and even a solid business model, but if the market isn’t ready, the odds are stacked against you.
Gross’s research shows how Idealab-backed companies like Z.com failed despite having all the right ingredients simply because the market wasn’t ready. Meanwhile, startups like Airbnb and Uber achieved massive success by launching at precisely the right time.
The Role of Adaptability
While timing is critical, adaptability in startups is another essential factor for success. As Mike Tyson famously said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” In the startup world, that punch often comes from market forces.
Startups that thrive are often those that can quickly adapt to changing market conditions. Airbnb and Uber didn’t just succeed because of their timing—they also evolved as the market grew and shifted. Adaptability allowed them to stay ahead of competitors and continuously meet their customers’ changing needs.
While we couldn’t change the timing of TCS iON PrepTest, the experience taught us the importance of being nimble. Had we pivoted to a more hybrid model or delayed the launch until internet access improved, the story might have been different.
Conclusion: Timing and the Future of Startups
Nine years after launching the TCS iON PrepTest, the lessons I learned from that experience continue to shape how I approach new projects. As Bill Gross emphasized, timing is the single most critical factor in determining a startup’s success. However, adaptability, resilience, and the ability to learn from failure are equally important.
Understanding market readiness is key for entrepreneurs and innovators. The startup landscape is constantly evolving, with new technologies, shifting consumer behaviors, and changing economic conditions all creating opportunities and risks. But one thing remains constant: timing is everything.
By recognizing when the market is ready and being willing to adapt, you can increase your chances of success—whether launching the next big thing or learning from past ventures to create something even better.
